The UIG captures sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data.
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Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)
January 2023: The New York Fed Staff UIG Measures
- The UIG "full data set" measure for December is currently estimated at 5.4%, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
- The "prices-only" measure for December is currently estimated at 4.5%, a 0.5 percentage point decrease from the current estimate of the previous month.
- The twelve-month change in the December CPI was +6.5%, a 0.6 percentage point decrease from the previous month.
-For December 2022, trend CPI inflation is estimated to be in the 4.5% to 5.4% range, a slightly wider range than November, because of a larger decrease in its lower bound than in its upper bound.
UIG Measures and 12-Month Change in the CPI
Data Series
The “prices-only” underlying inflation gauge (UIG) is derived from a large number of disaggregated price series in the consumer price index (CPI), while the “full data set” measure incorporates additional macroeconomic and financial variables. For a list of the series employed, see the data appendix.
FAQ
Please see this document for frequently asked questions and further details on the methodology behind the UIG. 
Related Reading
For an introduction, check out Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “Measuring Trend Inflation with the Underlying Inflation Gauge,” Liberty Street Economics, May 22, 2017.
For a more detailed account of our trend inflation measure, see Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review (September 2017).
An in-depth discussion of methodology is provided in Amstad, Potter, and Rich, “The New York Fed Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 672 (April 2014) and Amstad and Potter, “Real Time Underlying Inflation Gauge for Monetary Policymakers,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 420 (December 2009).
2023 Releases *
January 12 
February 14
March 24
April 12
May 10
June 16
July 12
August 10
September 22
October 12
November 14
December 15
February 14
March 24
April 12
May 10
June 16
July 12
August 10
September 22
October 12
November 14
December 15
* We generally update and publish the UIG at 2:30 p.m. on CPI release dates. If that date falls during a blackout period surrounding a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, we will publish at 10 a.m. on the first morning following the blackout.
How to cite this report: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Underlying Inflation Gauge, https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/underlying-inflation-gauge.
Archive
About the UIG
We share two monthly estimates of trend inflation. The first derives a measure from a large number of price series in the consumer price index (CPI) as well as macroeconomic and financial variables; the second employs the prices-only data set.
For more information, see our FAQ.
For more information, see our FAQ.
The New York Fed Staff UIG measures are not official estimates of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Open Market Committee.
The New York Fed Staff UIG is a product of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC).
The New York Fed Staff UIG is a product of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC).
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