GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

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GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix

Number 1027
August 2022

JEL classification: E01, C32

Authors: Martín Almuzara, Dante Amengual, Gabriele Fiorentini, and Enrique Sentana

We exploit the information in the successive vintages of gross domestic expenditure (GDE) and gross domestic income (GDI) from the current comprehensive revision to obtain an improved, timely measure of U.S. aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures and taking their monthly release calendar seriously. We also combine all existing overlapping comprehensive revisions to achieve further improvements. We pay particular attention to the Great Recession and the pandemic, which, despite producing dramatic fluctuations, does not generate noticeable revisions in previous growth rates. The estimated parameters of our dynamic state-space model suggest that comprehensive revisions have not changed the long-run growth rate of U.S. GDP.

Available only in PDF

Author Disclosure Statement(s)

Martín Almuzara
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.

Dante Amengual
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.

Gabriele Fiorentini
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.

Enrique Sentana
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.

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