Authors: Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and John C. Williams
-
-
The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
Do you have a request for information and records? Learn how to submit it.
Learn about the history of the New York Fed and central banking in the United States through articles, speeches, photos and video.
-
-
-
The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
Need to file a report with the New York Fed? Here are all of the forms, instructions and other information related to regulatory and statistical reporting in one spot.
The New York Fed works to protect consumers as well as provides information and resources on how to avoid and report specific scams.
-
-
-
The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
The growing role of nonbank financial institutions, or NBFIs, in U.S. financial markets is a transformational trend with implications for monetary policy and financial stability.
The New York Fed offers the Central Banking Seminar and several specialized courses for central bankers and financial supervisors.
-
-
Staff Reports
Interest Rate Surprises When the Fed Doesn’t Speak
Number 1178
February 2026
February 2026
JEL classification: E44, E52, E58
The predictability of monetary policy surprises based on past, public information has been interpreted in two related yet fundamentally different ways. The “Fed information effect” posits that it arises due to markets updating their view of the economy, based on signals implicitly revealed by the FOMC. The “Fed reaction to news” explanation posits that markets update their view of the FOMC’s reaction function instead. We show that interest rate surprises calculated around macroeconomic releases exhibit the same predictability pattern as monetary policy surprises. Since these occur at a time when there is no scope for markets to learn about the Fed’s behavior, this pattern suggests an additional information channel unrelated to FOMC communication.
Author Disclosure Statement(s)
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
John C. Williams
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
John C. Williams
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.
Suggested Citation:
Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia and John C. Williams. 2026. “Interest Rate Surprises When the Fed Doesn’t Speak.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1178, February. https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1178
Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia and John C. Williams. 2026. “Interest Rate Surprises When the Fed Doesn’t Speak.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1178, February. https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1178
By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Statement. You can learn more about how we use cookies by reviewing our Privacy Statement. 
