NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the May 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations decreased at the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons, while home price growth expectations increased. Labor market expectations deteriorated somewhat with an increase in layoff expectations and a decline in job finding expectations. Expectations about future credit access, households’ financial situation, and delinquencies all deteriorated. The survey was fielded from May 1 through May 31, 2026.
The main findings from the May 2026 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.1% and 3.0% at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons in May. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) decreased across all horizons.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at the one-year and three-year-ahead horizons and decreased at the five-year-ahead horizon.
- Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5%. This is the highest reading since July 2022. The increase was most pronounced for the West and Midwest Census regions.
- Median year-ahead gas price growth expectations dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 5.0%. Other commodity price change expectations increased by 0.6 percentage point for food to 5.8% and by 1.4 percentage points for rent to 7.4%, while they decreased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 8.9% and by 0.8 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 8.0%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained stable at 2.7% in May, remaining slightly above their 12-month trailing average of 2.6%.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 43.2%, remaining above their 12-month trailing average of 41.1%.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.5 percentage point to 15.1%, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.4%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months increased by 2.6 percentage points to 20.8%, its highest level since February 2023. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 43.7%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 46.8% and marking the lowest reading since December 2025.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 2.8% in May 2026.
- Median one-year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 5.0%, standing slightly above their trailing 12-month average of 4.9%. The decline was driven by respondents above age 60 and those with at most a high school degree and annual household incomes less than $50,000.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago remained largely unchanged, with a greater share of households reporting that credit availability was equally easy or difficult. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with a lower share of respondents expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose by 1.2 percentage points to 12.6%, staying below its 12-month trailing average of 12.9%. This increase was mostly driven by those with at most a high school degree and with annual household incomes below $100,000.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.1%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 9.9%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will be higher in 12 months decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 24.6%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situation compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation, marking the highest reading since January 2023, and a slightly smaller share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situation also deteriorated, with an increase in the net share of households expecting a worse financial situation. The net share of households expecting a better versus worse financial situation in one year is at its lowest level since October 2022.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.4 percentage points to 38.0%.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
