John C. Williams

President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045

john.c.williams@ny.frb.org

   
Published Articles (Refereed Journals and Volumes)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
With Kathryn Holston and Thomas Laubach
Journal of International Economics 108, May 2017. S59-S75
Real-time estimates
Current estimates
Replication code

A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment
With Glenn D. Rudebusch
Journal of Macroeconomics 47A, March 2016. 5-18

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates
With Eric T. Swanson
American Economic Review 104 (10), October 2014. 3154-3185

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany
With Eric T. Swanson
Journal of International Economics 92 (S1), 2014. 2-21

A Defense of Moderation in Monetary Policy
Journal of Macroeconomics 38, 2013. 137-150

Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations
With Athanasios Orphanides
In The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, ed. by Michael D. Bordo and Athanasios Orphanides, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2013. 255-297

Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?
With Hess Chung, Jean-Philippe Laforte, and David Reifschneider
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 44, 2012. 47-82

Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy
With John B. Taylor
In Handbook of Monetary Economics, 3B, ed. by Benjamin Friedman and Michael Woodford, North-Holland, 2011. 829-860

Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy under Parameter Uncertainty
With Rochelle M. Edge and Thomas Laubach
Journal of Applied Econometrics 25, January 2010, 129-143

Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound
Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, Fall 2009, 2010, 1-37

Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
With Athanasios Orphanides
In Central Banking, Analysis and Economic Policies: Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty and Learning, 13, ed. by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Carl Walsh, Central Bank of Chile, 2009.

Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve
With Glenn D. Rudebusch
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 27(4), 2009. 492-503

A Black Swan in the Money Market
With John B. Taylor
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1(1), January 2009. 58-83

Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
With Athanasios Orphanides
Journal of Monetary Economics 55, September 2008. S80-S96

Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections
With Glenn D. Rudebusch
In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, ed. by John Y. Campbell, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2008. 247-284

Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Productivity Growth
With Rochelle M. Edge and Thomas Laubach
Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), November 2007. 2421-2438
See also>>
Updated estimates of trend labor productivity growth

Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge
With Athanasios Orphanides
Journal of Monetary Economics 54, August 2007. 1406-1435

Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge
With Athanasios Orphanides
In Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, 11, ed. by Frederic Mishkin, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile, 2007. 77-123

Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconomic Models
With Andrew T. Levin, Alexei Onatski, and Noah Williams
In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, ed. by Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2006. 229-287

Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge
With Athanasios Orphanides
Journal of the European Economic Association 4(2-3), April 2006

Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning
In Monetary Policy in an Environment of Low Inflation; Proceedings of the Bank of Korea International Conference 2006 Seoul: Bank of Korea, 2006. 199-228

The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations
With Athanasios Orphanides
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 29(11), November 2005. 1927-1950

Using a Long-Term Interest Rate as the Monetary Policy Instrument
With Glenn D. Rudebusch and Bruce McGough
Journal of Monetary Economics 52(5), July 2005. 855-879

Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy
With Athanasios Orphanides
Review of Economic Dynamics 8(2), May 2005. 498-527

Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach
With Simon Gilchrist
Review of Economic Dynamics 8(1), January 2005. 1-27

Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change
In Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley, ed. by Jon Faust, Athanasios Orphanides, and David Reifschneider, Washington, DC: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 2005

Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy
With Athanasios Orphanides
In Inflation Targeting, ed. by Benjamin S. Bernanke and Michael Woodford, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2004. 201-234

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
With Thomas Laubach
Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4), 2003. 1063-1070
Real-time estimates
Current estimates
Replication code

Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models
With Andrew T. Levin
Journal of Monetary Economics 50(5), July 2003. 945-975

The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
With Andrew T. Levin and Volker Wieland
American Economic Review 93(3), June 2003. 622-645

Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates
With Athanasios Orphanides
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2002(2). December 2002, 63-145

Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era
With David Reifschneider
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, November 2000. 936-966

Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis
With Simon Gilchrist
Journal of Political Economy, October 2000. 928-960

Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D
With Charles Jones
Journal of Economic Growth, March 2000. 65-85

Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
With Andrew T. Levin and Volker Wieland
In Monetary Policy Rules, ed. by John B. Taylor, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999

Measuring the Social Return to R&D
With Charles Jones
Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 1998. 1119-1135



FRB San Francisco
The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2018-13
May 21, 2018

Supporting Strong, Steady, and Sustainable Growth
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2018-10
April 9, 2018

Expect the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2018-03
February 5, 2018

Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook: A Fine Balancing Act
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-36
December 18, 2017

The Perennial Problem of Predicting Potential
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-32
November 6, 2017

Interest Rates and the “New Normal”
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-29
October 10, 2017

Monetary Policy’s Role in Fostering Sustainable Growth
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-22
August 7, 2017

The Global Growth Slump: Causes and Consequences
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-19
July 3, 2017

Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks and Strategies in a Low R-star World
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-13
May 8, 2017

Three Questions on R-star
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-05
February 21, 2017

Looking Back, Looking Ahead
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2017-02
January 23, 2017

Longview: The Economic Outlook
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-24
August 22, 2016

Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-23
August 15, 2016

Economic Outlook: Springtime Is on My Mind
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-16
May 16, 2016

Data Dependence Awakens
With Benjamin Pyle
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-12
April 11, 2016

Rules of Engagement
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-06
February 29, 2016

The Right Profile: Economic Drivers and the Outlook
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-05
February 22, 2016

After the First Rate Hike
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2016-01
January 11, 2016

Dancing Days Are Here Again: The Long Road Back to Maximum Employment
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-36
December 7, 2015

The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-31
October 5, 2015

Measuring Monetary Policy’s Effect on House Prices
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-28
August 31, 2015

The Recovery’s Final Frontier?
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-23
July 13, 2015

Macroprudential Policy in a Microprudential World
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-18
June 1, 2015

Looking Forward: The Path for Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-17
May 26, 2015

Monetary Policy and the Independence Dilemma
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-15
May 11, 2015

The Value of Lifelong Learning
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2014 Annual Report
April 2015

The View from Here: Outlook and Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2015-08
March 9, 2015

Navigating toward Normal: The Future for Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2014-31
October 20, 2014

Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: Happy Marriage or Untenable Union?
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2014-17
June 9, 2014

The Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy: The Road Back to Ordinary
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2014-16
June 2, 2014

The San Francisco Fed and the West: A Century of Reinvention
With Sam Zuckerman
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2013 Annual Report
April 2014

Housing, Banking, and the Recovery: The Outlook
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2014-02
January 13, 2014

Rebalancing the Economy: A Tale of Two Countries
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-33
November 12, 2013

Will Unconventional Policy Be the New Normal?
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-29
October 7, 2013

Bubbles Tomorrow, Yesterday, but Never Today?
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-27
September 23, 2013

The Economic Recovery: Past, Present, and Future
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-18
July 1, 2013

Economic Outlook: Moving in the Right Direction
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-15
May 20, 2013

Cash Is Dead! Long Live Cash!
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2012 Annual Report
April 2013

The Economy and Fed Policy: Follow the Demand
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-05
February 25, 2013

Monetary Policy in Uncertain Times
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2013-02
January 21, 2013

The Federal Reserve’s Unconventional Policies
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-34
November 13, 2012

The Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-30
October 1, 2012

The Outlook and Monetary Policy Challenges
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-22
July 23, 2012

Monetary Policy, Money, and Inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-21
July 9, 2012

The Slow Recovery: It’s Not Just Housing
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-11
April 9, 2012

Opening the Temple
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2011 Annual Report
April 2012

The Federal Reserve and the Economic Recovery
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2012-02
January 17, 2012

Unconventional Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Past Three Years
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2011-31
October 3, 2011

Economics Instruction and the Brave New World of Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2011-17
June 6, 2011

Maintaining Price Stability in a Global Economy
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2011-14
May 9, 2011

What Is the New Normal Unemployment Rate?
With Justin Weidner
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2011-05
February 14, 2011

Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of the Fed’s Asset Purchases
With Hess Chung, Jean-Philippe Laforte, and David Reifschneider
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2011-03
January 31, 2011

The Shape of Things to Come
With Justin Weidner
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2010-15
May 17, 2010

Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning
Economic Review
2010

How Big Is the Output Gap?
With Justin Weidner
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2009-19
June 12, 2009

The Risk of Deflation
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2009-12
March 27, 2009

Monetary Policy, Transparency, and Credibility: Conference Summary
With Richard Dennis
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2007-12
May 25, 2007

Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge
With Athanasios Orphanides
Economic Review
2007

Inflation Persistence in an Era of Well-Anchored Inflation Expectations
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2006-27
October 13, 2006

Labor Markets and the Macroeconomy: Conference Summary
With Richard Dennis
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2006-17
July 21, 2006

Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change
Economic Review
2006

Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Conference Summary
With Richard Dennis
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2005-12
June 10, 2005

Technology, Productivity, and Public Policy
With Mary Daly
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2004-07
March 12, 2004

The Natural Rate of Interest
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2003-32
October 31, 2003

Simple Rules for Monetary Policy
Economic Review
2003



Other Works
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux
With Thomas Laubach
Business Economics 51(2), April 2016, 57-67

The Decline in the Natural Rate of Interest
Business Economics 50 (2), April 2015, 57-60

Policy Rules in Practice
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 49, December 2014, 151-153

Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Putting Theory into Practice
In Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy Brookings Institution, 2014

Two Cheers for Bagehot
In Challenges to Central Banking in the Context of Financial Crisis, ed. by Subir Gokarn, Academic Foundation, 2011. 333-347

Monetary Policy and Housing Booms
International Journal of Central Banking, 7(1), 2011, 345-354

The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade
In NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009,ed. by Lucrezia Reichlin and Kenneth West, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010 367-375

Comment on  “Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001”
In NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, ed. by Lucrezia Reichlin and Kenneth West, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010. 48-52

Wrap-up Discussion
In Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, ed. by Renee Fry, Callum Jones, and Christopher Kent, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2010. 342-346

Discussion of “Disagreement about Inflation Expectations”
In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, ed. by Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2004. 257-268

Discussion of “A Snapshot on Inflation Targeting in its Adolescence”
The Future of Inflation Targeting, ed. by Christopher Kent and Simon Guttmann, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2004. 43-46

The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board
With Flint Brayton, Andrew T. Levin, and Ralph Tryon
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series, November 1999

Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective
With David Reifschneider and Robert Tetlow
Federal Reserve Bulletin, January 1999, 1-19

The Role of Expectations in the FRB/US Macroeconomic Model
With Flint Brayton, Eileen Mauskopf, David Reifschneider, and Peter Tinsley
Federal Reserve Bulletin, April 1997, 227-245

John Williams' CV The views expressed in the papers listed on this page are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
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