Authors: Matteo Crosignani, Lina Han, and Marco Macchiavelli
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Staff Reports
Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds
Number 1172
November 2025 Revised September 2026
November 2025 Revised September 2026
JEL classification: G12, F51, F38
How do investors respond to firm-level geoeconomic shocks? U.S. export controls restrict technology sales to targeted Chinese firms, depressing the stock prices of their U.S. suppliers. We trace these shocks to domestic equity mutual funds. Funds more exposed to affected suppliers display higher volatility and lower performance. Although export controls target specific firms, they trigger portfolio-wide adjustments: funds rebalance away from affected suppliers and other U.S. exporters to China, leaving portfolios more concentrated. Specialist and high-fee funds see smaller performance declines. Affected suppliers’ stock prices subsequently recover, consistent with dissipating selling pressure or higher required returns.
Author Disclosure Statement(s)
Matteo Crosignani
I declare that I do not have relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in the paper titled “Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds.”
Lina Han
I declare that I do not have relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in the paper titled “Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds.”
Marco Macchiavelli
I declare that I do not have relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in the paper titled “Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds.”
I declare that I do not have relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in the paper titled “Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds.”
Lina Han
I declare that I do not have relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in the paper titled “Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds.”
Marco Macchiavelli
I declare that I do not have relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in the paper titled “Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds.”
Suggested Citation:
Crosignani, Matteo, Lina Han, and Marco Macchiavelli. 2025. “Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1172, revised September 2026. https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1172
Crosignani, Matteo, Lina Han, and Marco Macchiavelli. 2025. “Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1172, revised September 2026. https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1172
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