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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Survey responses were collected between October 2 and October 9.
Manufacturing activity grew modestly in New York State, according to the October survey. On the heels of September’s retreat into negative territory, the general business conditions index climbed nineteen points to 10.7. After plunging last month, both new orders and shipments increased, with the new orders index rising to 3.7 and the shipments index climbing to 14.4. The inventories index was -1.0, indicating that business inventories were little changed. The delivery times index rose to 3.9, and the supply availability index came in at -10.7, pointing to somewhat longer delivery times and worsening supply availability.
The index for number of employees moved up to 6.2, suggesting employment increased modestly, while the average workweek index remained negative at -4.1, suggesting a small decline in hours worked. Both price indexes remained elevated and moved higher: the prices paid index rose six points to 52.4, and the prices received index rose six points to 27.2.
The index for future general business conditions rose to its highest level in several months, suggesting that firms expect conditions to improve in the months ahead. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and supply availability is expected to be little changed. Firms anticipate ongoing price increases. Capital spending plans remained soft.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
