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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between May 4 and May 11.
Business activity grew strongly in New York State in May, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed nine points to 19.6, its highest level in more than four years. New orders and shipments increased considerably for the second consecutive month. Unfilled orders rose. Delivery times lengthened substantially, and supply availability worsened somewhat. Employment levels and the average workweek both continued to increase. The pace of input price increases and selling price increases picked up sharply. Looking ahead, firms grew more optimistic about the outlook.
Manufacturing activity in New York State grew strongly, according to the May survey. The general business conditions index rose nine points to 19.6, its highest reading since April 2022. The new orders index rose three points to 22.7, its highest level in more than four years. The shipments index was little changed at 18.9, pointing to another solid increase in shipments. Unfilled orders increased for the fourth consecutive month. The delivery time index rose eight points to 20.4, a four-year high, and the supply availability index remained negative at -10.7, suggesting that delivery times were much longer and supply availability worsened. Inventories increased modestly.
The index for number of employees was little changed at 8.3, and the average workweek index came in at 11.5, pointing to an ongoing increase in employment levels and hours worked. Both price indexes picked up to their highest levels since 2022. The prices paid index rose twelve points to 62.6, pointing to a sharp acceleration in input price increases for a second consecutive month, and the prices received index climbed ten points to 31.8.
Firms became more optimistic about the outlook. The index for future business conditions rose fourteen points to 33.5, with over fifty percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. Employment is expected to grow. Capital spending plans remained modest. Prices are expected to continue to rise, and supply availability is expected to worsen.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
