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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Survey responses were collected between September 2 and September 9.
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State after increasing over the summer, according to the September survey. The general business conditions index dropped twenty-one points to -8.7, its first negative reading since June. The new orders index declined thirty-five points to -19.6, and the shipments index fell thirty points to -17.3, the lowest levels for both indexes since April 2024, pointing to significant declines in orders and shipments. Unfilled orders fell. The inventories index remained modestly negative at -4.9, indicating that business inventories continued to shrink somewhat. Delivery times were unchanged. The supply availability index dropped to -8.8, a sign that supply availability continued to worsen.
The index for number of employees came in at around zero, suggesting that employment was little changed after increasing for the prior three months, while the average workweek index declined to -5.1, pointing to a modest drop in hours worked. The prices paid index fell eight points to 46.1, a sign that input price increases slowed but remained steep, while the prices received index was little changed at 21.6, indicating that selling prices continued to rise at a moderate pace.
The index for future general business conditions came in at 14.8, suggesting that firms expect conditions to improve somewhat in the months ahead, but optimism remained subdued. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and supply availability is expected to be little changed. The future employment index fell to near zero, a rare occurrence suggesting that employment levels are not expected to increase over the next six months. Capital spending plans remained soft.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
