The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between March 4 and March 11.
Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -20.9. Demand softened as new orders declined significantly, and shipments were lower. Unfilled orders continued to shrink, and delivery times were little changed. Inventories declined. Labor market indicators weakened, as employment and hours worked both decreased. The pace of input price increases moderated somewhat, while the pace of selling price increases held steady. Firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, though optimism remained subdued.
Manufacturing activity contracted in New York State, according to the March survey. The general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -20.9. The new orders index fell eleven points to -17.2, and the shipments index moved down ten points to -6.9, pointing to a decline in orders and shipments. The unfilled orders index held steady at -10.9, a sign that unfilled orders continued to fall. The inventories index was little changed at -12.9, suggesting that inventories were lower, and the delivery times index came in at -1.0, indicating that delivery times held steady.
The index for number of employees fell seven points to -7.1, and the average workweek index fell six points to -10.4, pointing to a modest decline in employment levels and hours worked. The prices paid index edged down four points to 28.7, indicating that input price increases slowed, and the prices received index was unchanged at 17.8.
Firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, though optimism continued to be subdued. The index for future business conditions held steady at 21.6. The capital spending index was little changed at 11.9, suggesting capital spending plans remained somewhat soft.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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APR
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16 report
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15 report
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15 report
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15
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025