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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between March 2 and March 9.
Business activity was little changed in New York State in March, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -0.2. New orders increased modestly, while shipments declined. Unfilled orders rose, delivery times lengthened, and supply availability was slightly worse. Inventories increased. Employment rose modestly and the average workweek edged up. The pace of input price increases declined significantly, but remained elevated, while the pace of selling price increases was little changed. Firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, and capital spending plans strengthened.
Manufacturing activity held steady in New York State, according to the March survey. The general business conditions index fell seven points to -0.2, with just over 30 percent of firms reporting an increase in activity and the same percentage reporting a decrease. The new orders index was little changed at 6.4, pointing to a small increase in orders, while the shipments index fell six points to -6.9, indicating that shipments declined. The unfilled orders index rose two points to 10.8. The delivery times index rose ten points to 13.7, indicating that delivery times lengthened. Inventories moved higher. The supply availability index dipped three points to -3.9, suggesting that supply availability was slightly worse than last month.
The index for number of employees rose two points to 5.8 and the average workweek index was little changed at 1.9, suggesting a modest increase in employment levels and a slight increase in hours worked. The prices paid index fell thirteen points to 36.6, and the prices received index was little changed at 21.4, indicating that input price increases moderated while selling price increases held steady.
The index for future business conditions came in at 31.0, suggesting that firms continued to be optimistic about the outlook. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and employment is expected to grow in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index rose three points to 21.6, a multi-year high, indicating that capital spending plans strengthened.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
