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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between January 4 and January 11.
Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index held steady at 3.5. New orders and shipments edged higher. Unfilled orders continued to move lower, and delivery times continued to lengthen somewhat. Employment levels increased modestly and the average workweek lengthened. Input price increases and selling price increases both picked up noticeably. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months.
There was little growth in manufacturing activity in New York State in January. The general business conditions index was similar to last month’s level at 3.5. Twenty-seven percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 23 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index rose three points to 6.6, indicating a small increase in orders, and the shipments index fell to 7.3, pointing to a modest increase in shipments. Delivery times were somewhat longer, and inventories held steady.
The index for number of employees fell three points to 11.2, a level pointing to ongoing gains in employment. The average workweek index was little changed at 6.3, signaling another small increase in hours worked. The prices paid index rose eight points to 45.5, its highest level in two years, indicating a pickup in input price increases. This index has risen a cumulative 41 points since May. The prices received index climbed five points to 15.2, its highest level in a year, pointing to an acceleration in selling prices.
The index for future business conditions came in at 31.9, suggesting that firms remained optimistic about future conditions. The indexes for future new orders and shipments were positive and slightly higher than last month’s readings. Employment levels and the average workweek are expected to continue to increase in the months ahead. The capital expenditures index came in at 17.9, and technology spending indexes moved down to 13.1.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
2021
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JAN
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FEB
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MAR
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APR
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15 report
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16
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15
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15
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MAY
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JUN
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JUL
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AUG
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17
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15
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15
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16
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SEP
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OCT
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NOV
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DEC
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15
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15
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15
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15
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes 
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651
