Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Supplemental Survey Report past and expected changes in prices will be released October 16 at 8:30 a.m.
 

Note: Survey responses were collected between October 2 and October 9.

Download the full report PDF

Business activity expanded modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to 10.5, pointing to a slower pace of growth than in September. New orders and shipments continued to increase, while unfilled orders continued to decline. Inventories moved lower, and delivery times were little changed. Manufacturers reported a small increase in employment, and a significantly longer average workweek. Input prices increased at about the same pace as last month, and selling prices continued to increase slightly. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, though optimism was somewhat lower than last month.

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Released at 8:30 a.m.
 



2020
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
15 report 
17 report 
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
15 report 
16
15

Historical Reports ››

 
Historical Tables
Diffusion Indexes
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 10 kb
All Data
Seasonally adjusted: csv
Not seasonally adjusted: csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 10 kb
Seasonal Factors
Seasonal factors: csv
Data definitions PDF 2 pages / 15 kb

Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.

The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.

For demonstration only:

Sample surveyPDF 1 page / 44 kb

Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.

The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.

Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision to reflect new seasonal factors.

Seasonal Adjustment

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.

The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.

Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:

X = log(p/(1-p))

The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:

adjX = X - seasonal factor

The result is then transformed using the following equation:

SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))

To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.



Data definitionsPDF 1 page / 15 kb

Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025; jason.bram@ny.frb.org or (212) 720-5651

Tools
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