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The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Survey responses were collected between June 2 and June 9.
Manufacturing activity fell for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the June survey. The general business conditions index fell seven points to -16.0. After rising above zero last month, the new orders index fell to -14.2, and the shipments index moved down to around zero, pointing to a decline in both orders and shipments. Unfilled orders declined. The inventories index came in at around zero, signaling that business inventories held steady. Delivery times were little changed, while the supply availability index remained below zero at -8.3, suggesting that supply availability continued to worsen.
The index for number of employees rose ten points to 4.7, its first positive reading since January and a sign that employment increased slightly. The average workweek index came in at -1.5, suggesting little change in hours worked. After reaching its highest level in more than two years in May, the prices paid index fell twelve points to 46.8, suggesting that the pace of price increases slowed but remained significant. The prices received index edged up four points to 26.6, suggesting that selling price increases accelerated somewhat.
After turning pessimistic in April and May, firms turned positive in June, expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. The index for future general business conditions climbed twenty-three points to 21.2. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and firms expect supply availability to be only slightly worse in the months ahead. Capital spending plans remained soft.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
