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Buffalo Metro Area

Buffalo is home to more than 1.1 million people, making it the second-largest metropolitan area in New York State. Historically, manufacturing was the driving force of Buffalo’s economy, with steel factories and auto parts suppliers having a particularly strong presence.

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Buffalo Metro Area Economic Indicators

Economic and Demographic Trends

	Population 2023	Pop growth 2023, 10-year change (%)	GDP 2022, billions ($)	Job growth 2023, 5-year change (%)	Median household income 2022 ($)	Median home price 2022 ($)	Pop share age 25+ with BA+ 2022 (%)
Buffalo	1,155,604	1.7	85	-1.9	65,000	219,000	35.8
Rochester*	1,076,559	-1.0	75	-2.5	67,110	191,000	35.6
Syracuse*	652,956	-1.0	49	-1.8	65,000	172,000	33.2
New York State	19,571,216	-0.7	2,048	0.3	76,000	400,000	40.0
United States	334,914,895	5.5	25,744	4.8	71,700	321,000	35.7

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; IPUMS USA-University of Minnesota; and New York Fed calculations. Data retrieved through data.census.gov, Moody's Economy.com, or directly from source.

*Neighboring Metros

Business Leaders Survey: Service Sector Activity Declines Significantly

April 16, 2025

Business activity in the New York-Northern New Jersey region’s service sector declined significantly for a second consecutive month in April. The survey’s headline business activity index came in at -19.8, its lowest level in more than a year, and firms were pessimistic about the outlook. Learn more in our monthly regional service sector survey on current and future business trends.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Business Activity Continues to Fall

April 15, 2025

Business activity continued to decline in New York State’s manufacturing sector in April, with the headline general business conditions remaining below zero at -8.1. Learn more in our monthly survey of New York manufacturers as they assess current conditions and the future outlook.

collage of portrait images of people of different demographics

Regional Economic Heterogeneity Indicators

April 8, 2025

The Economic Heterogeneity Indicators are broad-based economic indicators that measure macroeconomic outcomes experienced by different demographic, economic, and geographic groups across the New York-New Jersey metro area, as well as all other counties in New York state.

Full Regional Report | Regional Data

Jaison Abel's Briefing on Economic Conditions in the Region

March 25, 2025

In a presentation for the 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference, Jaison Abel, Head of Microeconomics, discussed economic conditions in the region, including employment, inflation, housing, and business conditions.

Credit Insecurity in the United States: 2018-2023

BY Jake Scott, Ambika Nair, and Claire Kramer Mills | March 6, 2025

The report introduces a geographic measure of credit access across the United States called the Credit Insecurity Index. The index combines data about the share of adults without a credit score or file and the share who have limited access to affordable credit. The report uses the index to measure access to affordable credit at the national, state, city, town, and county level.

Beige Book: Economic Activity in the Second District Was Little Changed in Early 2025

March 5, 2025

Regional economic activity was little changed in early 2025. Employment grew slightly and wage growth was moderate, with labor supply and labor demand coming back into balance. Selling price increases picked up to a moderate pace after some slowing last period. Many businesses noted heightened economic uncertainty and expressed concern about tariffs.

illustration of new york city skyline in blue against gold background

Firms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up

By Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, and Ben Hyman | March 5, 2025

After a period of high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years, dropping from a peak of 9.1 percent in 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. However, firms expect both cost and price increases to move higher in 2025, with year-ahead inflation expectations rising from 3 percent last year at this time to 3.5 to 4 percent, though longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored at around 3 percent.

Mapping Home Price Changes

February 2025

Explore year-over-year changes in home prices both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated monthly with new home price index data on 1,200 U.S. counties since 2003.

Quarterly Household Debt & Credit Report (with state information)

February 13, 2025

The report provides unique data and insight into the credit conditions of U.S. consumers and provides a quarterly snapshot of household trends in borrowing and indebtedness, including data about mortgages, student loans, credit cards, auto loans and delinquencies.

Early Benchmarked Employment Data

January 31, 2025

Our economists provide early benchmarks of initial monthly employment releases throughout the year and make the benchmarked data about the New York Fed region available to the public on a monthly basis.

Regional Employment Trends

January 31, 2025

These interactive charts illustrate payroll employment trends for more than 20 geographies in the Second District, from the state level down to metropolitan areas.

Technician using a tablet in a car factory

AI and the Labor Market: Will Firms Hire, Fire, or Retrain?

BY Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, Natalia Emanuel, and Benjamin Hyman | September 4, 2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to dramatically change the labor market and possibly the nature of work itself. The results of the authors’ August regional business surveys find most firms that expected to use AI in the next six months plan to retrain their workforces, with far fewer reporting adjustments to planned headcounts.

Supply Chain Disruptions Have Eased, But Remain a Concern

BY Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz | May 20, 2024

Supply chain disruptions became a major headache for businesses in the aftermath of the pandemic and were a key contributor to the surge in inflation. The authors present new measures in supply availability from the New York Fed’s Business Leaders Survey, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. They find that supply availability had generally been improving since early 2023, but improvement has stalled over the past couple of months.

Supplemental Survey Report: Regional Supply Chain Insights

May 20, 2024

In response to special questions focused on supply chain disruptions, about a third of service firms and 48 percent of manufacturing firms reported at least some difficulty obtaining supplies they needed this month. Learn more in our supplemental survey report.

Slow Road to Recovery: U.S.V.I. Sees Signs of Resilience

Many Places Still Have Not Recovered from the Pandemic Recession

May 7, 2024

The onset of the pandemic resulted in one of the sharpest and deepest economic downturns in U.S. history. The authors examine the uneven geographic recovery from the pandemic recession, noting that much of the New York-Northern New Jersey region is still way behind.

Andy Haughwout’s Briefing on U.S. and Regional Economic Conditions

April 18, 2024

In a presentation at the 2024 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference, Andy discussed economic conditions, including employment, inflation, business activity, housing, and commercial real estate.

small business workers creating fabric products in shop

Businesses See Inflationary Pressures Moderating

February 21, 2024

Shortly after the recovery from the pandemic recession began, the U.S. economy entered a period of high inflation as surging demand, severe supply disruptions, and worker shortages combined to create large imbalances and inflationary pressures in the economy. Have these pressures moderated for local businesses in the New York–Northern New Jersey region? The New York Fed’s February business surveys asked firms about increases in their costs and prices.

The State of Low-Income America: Credit Access & Housing

BY Claire Kramer-Mills, Ambika Nair, Belicia Rodriguez, and Joelle Scally | JANUARY 18, 2024

As part of our mission to make the U.S. economy stronger and the financial system more stable for all segments of society, the New York Fed issues periodic reports on credit access for low-income Americans. The 2024 report examines low-income households’ access to credit, ability to repay loans, and use of mortgage refinancing through Q3 of 2023.

Small Business Recovery after Natural Disasters

Banks versus Hurricanes

November 20, 2023

Puerto Rico’s location in the Caribbean leaves it highly exposed to all manner of severe weather. Hurricane Maria, which struck the island on September 17, 2017, was a worst case in some respects as it struck just two weeks after Hurricane Irma flooded the island. Even so, the island’s economy and banks recovered surprisingly quickly. This post discusses the various protections—including homeowners’ insurance, federal aid, and mortgage guarantees—that helped buttress the island’s economy and banks.

Flood-Prone Basement Housing in New York City and the Impact to Low-and-Moderate Income Renters

November 17, 2023

Hurricane Ida, which struck New York in early September 2021, exposed the region’s vulnerability to extreme rainfall and inland flooding. The storm inflicted extensive damage to the housing stock, particularly low-lying units. This post introduces new data to estimate with greater precision the flood risk to basement apartments in New York City. The authors show that these risks potentially impact roughly 10 percent of low- and moderate-income individuals, immigrants, and racial and ethnic minorities.

Small Business Recovery after Natural Disasters in the Fed’s Second District

November 16, 2023

This is the second of the two-part series on how natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, wildfires, droughts, and winter storms affect small businesses in the Federal Reserve’s Second District. While the previous post focused on the impact of such disasters using data from the Small Business Credit Survey for the period 2021-22, this post focuses on the aftermath of such disasters, and examines disparities in the ability of firms to reopen their businesses and access disaster relief.

Inaccurate flood zones in the Fed’s Second District

How Do Natural Disasters Affect Small Business Owners in the Fed’s Second District?

November 15, 2023

Data from the Federal Reserve’s Small Business Credit Survey shed light on how small businesses in the Second District are impacted by natural disasters (such as hurricanes, floods, wildfires, droughts, and winter storms). The author finds that increasing shares of small business firms in the region sustain losses from natural disasters, with minority-owned firms suffering losses at a disproportionately higher rate than white-owned firms.

Flood Risk and Firm Location Decisions in the Fed’s Second District

November 14, 2023

The intensity, duration, and frequency of flooding have increased over the past few decades. As the frequency of flood events continues to increase, the number of people, buildings, and agriculture exposed to flood risk is only likely to grow. This post focuses on the distribution of flood risk within the Federal Reserve's Second District and examines its effect on establishment location decisions over the last two decades.

How Do Banks Lend in Inaccurate Flood Zones in the Fed’s Second District?

November 13, 2023

This post examines the impact of flood risk, particularly on bank lending in the Federal Reserve’s Second District. Using data on the accuracy of flood maps, the authors examine banks’ lending practices within “very inaccurate” and “inaccurately” mapped areas. A map is considered “very inaccurate” If a property faces significant flooding damage (highest damage quartile) but is not mapped into a flood zone, and “inaccurate” If properties in an area face moderate damage but are insufficiently mapped.

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