A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.

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Note: Survey responses were collected between September 2 and September 10. Download the full report |
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Business activity declined modestly in the region's service sector in September, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey's headline business activity index fell nine points to -8.7. The business climate index dropped ten points to -35.9, suggesting the business climate was notably worse than normal. Employment edged lower, while wage growth held steady. Supply availability continued to worsen. The pace of input price increases remained elevated, while selling price increases picked up. Capital spending remained weak. Looking ahead, firms were not very optimistic about the outlook for the next six months.
Activity Declines
After holding steady last month, business activity declined in the New York–Northern New Jersey region, according to the September survey. The headline business activity index fell nine points to -8.7. Twenty-seven percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month, while 36 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index dropped ten points to -35.9, with only 13 percent of respondents reporting a favorable business climate and nearly half reporting an unfavorable climate. Employment Edges Lower
The employment index moved down seven points to -4.9, suggesting employment levels declined slightly. The wages index was little changed at 30.3, indicating that wage growth continued at about the same pace as in recent months. The prices paid index held steady at 69.0, signaling that input prices continued to increase significantly, and the prices received index rose six points to 33.7, a sign that selling price increases remained elevated and picked up compared to last month. The supply availability index fell to -15.8, indicating that supply availability continued to worsen. The capital spending index came in at -2.2, pointing to slightly lower capital spending. Firms Not Very Optimistic
The index for future business activity fell four points to 5.0, suggesting that firms expect only modest growth in activity over the next six months. Employment is expected to increase slightly in the months ahead. Firms' expectations for future input and selling price increases remained elevated. Supply availability is expected to worsen, and capital spending plans remained soft. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025 |
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables csv Data definitions
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
