In the latest edition of Current Issues, New York Fed staff provide a detailed overview of the Bank’s Survey of Primary Dealers (SPD), including an in-depth look at the purpose and evolution of the survey.
The SPD is designed to provide a timely and comprehensive summary of market expectations on a range of policy-related topics. One to two weeks before each regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the primary dealers are asked about their predictions for monetary policy and the economy. Survey responses are analyzed ahead of the meeting; aggregate results are published publicly three weeks after the FOMC meets.
In “Understanding the New York Fed’s Survey of Primary Dealers,” Ellen Correia Golay, Steven Friedman and Michael McMorrow offer a comprehensive review of the SPD and explain how the survey has evolved in recent years to reflect both the changing macroeconomic environment and the Fed’s move into new policy tools, such as forward guidance on interest rates and asset purchases. The authors also discuss how the survey has benefited from a relatively stable sample of respondents and a recurring set of core questions, allowing for time series analysis.
Ellen Correia Golay is a policy and market analysis senior associate, Steven Friedman a vice president, and Michael McMorrow an officer in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Markets Group.