Press Release

New York Fed Launches New Research Center for Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics

The Center aims to develop models and tools for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting, and will explore inequality and implications for monetary policy in a Symposium on November 12
November 05, 2021

NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today announced the establishment of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC). The Center will focus on promoting, collecting, and disseminating new research on the development of macroeconomic models and econometric tools to inform and support the monetary policy evaluation process. AMEC will engage with academics, central banks, and the public on the most topical questions in the fields of macroeconomics and econometrics.

AMEC will be led by Marco Del Negro, Vice President in the Research and Statistics Group’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Studies Function and the Center’s Director. AMEC will include the work of several economists and senior research analysts, including New York Fed President and Chief Executive Officer, John C. Williams.

“AMEC is unique from other research centers within the Federal Reserve System because our product offering is neither a data set nor expertise in a specific subject, but rather research in developing approaches and ideas for answering the most pressing questions in our field,” said Del Negro. “Leveraging the work done by a wide array of New York Fed researchers, the Center will explore key topics related to monetary policy, such as inequality, financial stability, the labor and housing markets, the international economy, climate change, and expectations formation, among others.”

As part of the Center’s work, the New York Fed will host a “Symposium on Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics: Implications for Policy,” organized by AMEC researchers and set to take place on November 12. It will bring together experts in the field to discuss the extent to which inequality in income and wealth changes the approach to macroeconomics. Look for future events exploring the Center’s other key research areas.

AMEC’s primary research products currently include:

  • Weekly Economic Index: An index of real economic activity using timely and relevant high-frequency data representing the common component of ten different daily and weekly series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.
  • New York Fed DSGE Model: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that has been used to forecast the economy since 2011 and whose forecasts are made available in real time to the public.
  • Treasury Term Premia: Estimates for maturities from one to ten years from 1961 to the present, available at daily and monthly frequencies, with analysis based on a five-factor, no-arbitrage term structure model.
  • Underlying Inflation Gauge: A measure of underlying inflation that captures sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data.
  • Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: A model using the slope of the yield curve, or “term spread,” to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.

The work of AMEC will be supported by an Advisory Board composed of external leaders in the field of economics. The Advisory Board will help provide advice and direction on the Center’s research efforts.

For more information on AMEC, check out today’s accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post featuring an interview with AMEC Director Marco Del Negro, here.

About the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC)
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to develop approaches and ideas for answering the most pressing questions in the fields of macroeconomics and applied econometrics. AMEC’s goal is to build on the extensive work done by the New York Fed’s Research Group in these areas and provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community. Research initiatives will focus on key topics to inform and support the monetary policy evaluation process, including inequality, financial stability, the labor and housing markets, the international economy, climate change, expectations formation, term structure models, and important gauges for monetary policy such as r*.

Contact
Mariah Measey
(347) 978-3071
Mariah.Measey@ny.frb.org 

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