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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
Treasury Market When-Issued Trading Activity
When the U.S. Treasury sells a new security, the security is announced to the public, auctioned days later, and then issued sometime after that. When-issued (WI) trading refers to trading of the new security after the announcement but before issuance. Despite the importance of WI trading, little is known publicly about the level of WI activity. The authors address this gap by analyzing WI transactions recorded in the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority’s Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine database.
By Michael Fleming, Or Shachar, and Peter Van Tassel
How Bank Reserves Are Distributed Matters. How You Measure Distribution Matters Too.
Changes in the distribution of banks’ reserve balances are important since they may impact conditions in the federal funds market and alter trading dynamics in money markets more generally. The authors propose using the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient as a new approach to measuring reserve concentration.
By Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, Steph Clampitt, Haitham Jendoubi, Gabriele La Spada, and Will Riordan
Following Borrowers Through Forbearance
Total household debt balances increased slightly in the third quarter of 2020, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Many of the efforts to stabilize the economy in response to the COVID crisis have focused on consumer balance sheets, both through direct cash transfers and through forbearances on federally backed debts. The authors examine the uptake of forbearances on mortgage and auto loans and its impact on their delinquency status and the borrower’s credit score.
By Andrew F. Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
How Has COVID-19 Affected Banking System Vulnerability?
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in banks’ balance sheets. To understand how these changes have affected the stability of the U.S. banking system, the authors provide an update of four analytical models that aim to capture different aspects of banking system vulnerability. The four models monitor vulnerabilities of U.S. banking firms and the way in which these vulnerabilities interact to amplify negative shocks.
By Kristian Blickle, Matteo Crosignani, Fernando Duarte, Thomas Eisenbach, Fulvia Fringuellotti, and Anna Kovner
The Fed Funds Market during the 2007-09 Financial Crisis
The U.S. federal funds market played a central role in the financial system during the 2007-09 crisis, because it was the market that provided banks with immediate liquidity, even late in the day. The author highlights results from a working paper that untangles the impact of economic drivers behind the fed funds rates and measures their respective effects on the marketplace using data over a sample period leading up to and during the financial crisis.
By Adam Copeland
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Center for Microeconomic Data
The Center for Microeconomic Data offers wide-ranging data and analysis on the finances and economic expectations of U.S. households.

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SCE Labor Market Survey
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Upcoming Releases
Nov 9: Survey of Consumer Expectations
Nov 17: Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
Weekly Economic Index
This metric, updated on Tuesdays and Thursdays, provides a signal of the state of the U.S. economy based on data reported at a daily or weekly frequency. It represents the common component of ten different series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
The Laubach-Williams and Holston-Laubach-Williams models provide estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, and related variables for the United States and other advanced economies. We share quarterly estimates as well as the replication code and documentation for both models.
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot is a monthly presentation designed to give you a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy.
Oil Price Dynamics Report
Our oil price decomposition, reported weekly, examines what’s behind recent fluctuations in oil prices: demand factors, supply factors, or some combination of the two?
Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)
The New York Fed Staff UIG measures capture sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data. We share estimates and downloadable data on a monthly basis.
Nowcasting Report
Weekly report tracks the evolution of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast of GDP growth and the impact of new macroeconomic data releases on the forecast.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Business activity expanded in New York State, though only slightly, according to firms responding to the November 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
Business Leaders Survey
Activity in the region’s service sector declined at a faster pace than in recent months, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s November 2020 Business Leaders Survey.
Supplemental Survey Report
Supplementary questions in the November 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Business Leaders Survey focused on expected changes in firms’ workforces, factors underlying the changes—with a particular focus on effects of the pandemic—and recent trends in wages.
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
The labor market improved for recent college graduates in the third quarter of 2020, though conditions remain precarious due to the coronavirus pandemic. With the recovery taking hold, the unemployment rate fell four percentage points to 9.1 percent. The underemployment rate jumped to 43.2 percent, as there was an increase in recent grads employed in non-college jobs that was larger than the increase for those employed in college jobs.
Recent Publications
How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
In macroeconomic models, inflation expectations drive a wide range of decisions including consumption, saving, borrowing, wage bargaining, and thus have a direct impact on realized inflation. The authors study how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Among their findings: Household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon.
Olivier Armantier, Gizem Koşar, Rachel Pomerantz, Daphné Skandalis, Kyle Smith, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Staff Report 949, November 2020
The Affordable Care Act and the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis
The authors investigate whether Medicaid expansion in accordance with the Affordable Care Act has had an effect on the spread and intensity of COVID-19 across the United States. To answer this question they use a regression discontinuity analysis at the county level near the borders of the states that expanded Medicaid with states that did not.
Rajashri Chakrabarti, Lindsay Meyerson, William Nober, and Maxim Pinkovskiy, Staff Report 948, November 2020
Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations
The authors study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and macro levels using a quantitative multi-country model. Their study relies upon a dataset covering the universe of French firm-level sales, imports, and exports over the period 1993-2007. The authors present one micro and one macro finding. The micro result is that foreign shocks are predominantly granular fluctuations.
Julian di Giovanni, Andrei A. Levchenko, and Isabelle Mejean, Staff Report 947, November 2020
The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**
The authors introduce the concept of the financial stability real interest rate, r**. As a vehicle to illustrate their idea, they use a macroeconomic banking model where the banking sector faces a constraint in terms of a limit on the amount of funds that it can raise. r** is the threshold interest rate above which the constraint becomes binding. They show that as the banking sector becomes more leveraged, r** falls.
Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, Marco Del Negro, and Albert Queralto, Staff Report 946, November 2020
Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
The recent era of globalization witnessed (1) greater cross-country trade integration as firms' production chains have spread across the world and (2) stock market returns becoming more correlated across countries. The authors analyze how the global production network impacts the transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks to world stock markets.
Julian di Giovanni and Galina Hale, Staff Report 945, November 2020
Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
The global financial crisis triggered strong renewed interest in understanding the causes, consequences, and remedies of financial crises. In this context, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with occasionally binding financial frictions proved successful as laboratories to study the anatomy of both business cycles and crises, and to explore optimal policy responses to these dynamics. In this paper, the authors propose a new approach to specifying and solving DSGE models with occasionally binding frictions that is suitable for structural estimation.
Gianluca Benigno, Andrew Foerster, Christopher Otrok, and Alessandro Rebucci, Staff Report 944
Alternative Indicators for Chinese Economic Activity Using Sparse PLS Regression
China’s official GDP growth rates over the past decade have been remarkably, and perhaps unrealistically, smooth. In an attempt to model Chinese business cycle fluctuations, the authors created a sparse partial least squares (PLS) factor from a large array of high-frequency data. The resulting factor demonstrates the cyclicality expected of China’s economic growth and performs well in out-of-sample testing. The authors believe that their sparse PLS model provides an accurate measure of Chinese economic growth at a high frequency.
Jan J. J. Groen and Michael B. Nattinger, Economic Policy Review
Labor Market Policies during an Epidemic
The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing policy interventions to contain it have had unprecedented negative effects on the U.S. labor market. In response, the U.S. government implemented two types of labor market policies: expanding unemployment insurance payments and granting payroll subsidies to vulnerable firms. In this paper, the authors study the usefulness of these policies both in isolation and in conjunction.
Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, and Kurt See, Staff Report 943, October 2020
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