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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
June Regional Business Surveys Paint a Mixed Picture
The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey points to a significant increase in manufacturing activity in the New York-Northern New Jersey region. However, the New York Fed’s parallel survey for the region’s service sector, the June Business Leaders Survey, paints a somewhat dreary picture of nonmanufacturing activity.
By Jason Bram and Richard Deitz
Bank Loan Performance under the Magnifying Glass
Bank loan portfolios look a lot healthier than they did just a few years ago, according to Quarterly Trends for Consolidated U.S. Banking Organizations (the QT report) from the New York Fed. In this post, our bloggers examine bank loan performance in more detail, using finer subcategories of loan portfolio data added to the QT report this quarter.
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—May 2017
Our bloggers present the latest update to the economic forecasts generated by the New York Fed’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Among the changes since February: GDP is expected to grow at 1.9 percent in 2017, down from a forecast of 2.2 percent in February.
By Ozge Akinci, Marco Del Negro, Abhi Gupta, Pearl Li, and Erica Moszkowski
Hey, Economist! Is Now a Good Time to Be Graduating from College?
The college graduation season is in full swing and many young adults will be starting to forge their path in the job market. So is it a good time to be graduating from college? In this Q&A, economists Jaison Abel and Richard Deitz discuss some of their work examining the labor market for recent college graduates.
By Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz
Do Credit Markets Watch the Waving Flag of Bankruptcy?
One of the consequences of filing for personal bankruptcy is that a mark is placed on the consumer’s credit report—a bankruptcy “flag.” Our blogger explores how the removal of bankruptcy flags affects borrowers’ credit scores and their access to credit by comparing these outcomes directly before and after flag removal.
By Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
At the N.Y. Fed: The Evolution of OTC Derivatives Markets
The 2007-09 financial crisis illustrated the fragility of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets, which prompted regulatory changes that some market participants have since attacked as counterproductive. In this post, our bloggers discuss key takeaways from a recent New York Fed conference on the state of derivatives markets, sifting the views of policymakers, practitioners, and other experts.
By Nina Boyarchenko, Or Shachar, and Jacqueline Yen
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Nowcasting Report
Weekly report tracks the evolution of the FRBNY Staff Nowcast of GDP growth and the impact of new macroeconomic data releases on the forecast.
Oil Price Dynamics Report
Our oil price decomposition, reported weekly, examines what’s behind recent fluctuations in oil prices: demand factors, supply factors, or some combination of the two?
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Labor market conditions continued to improve for recent college graduates through the end of 2016, with the unemployment rate edging down to 3.9 percent and the underemployment rate falling to 43.5 percent. Both rates are at their lowest level since the Great Recession.
Business Leaders Survey
Activity in the region’s service sector expanded slightly, according to firms responding to the June Survey.
Supplemental Survey Report
In a series of supplementary questions to the June 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Business Leaders Survey, businesses were asked how much their sales, employment levels, and capital spending had changed between the first half of 2016 and the first half of 2017.
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot is a monthly presentation designed to give you a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Business activity rebounded strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
Recent Publications
Supply- and Demand-Side Factors in Global Banking
The authors employ a methodology that offers an exact decomposition of the growth in international bank credit into supply, demand, and common shocks for the period 2000-16. By decomposing bilateral growth rates, policymakers can quickly ascertain whether rapid increases or decreases in credit to a particular country are driven by systematic changes in the balance sheets of that country’s key creditor banking systems (supply shocks), or whether they are idiosyncratic for that country (demand shocks).
By Mary Amiti, Patrick McGuire, and David E. Weinstein, Staff Reports 818, June 2017
How Did China’s WTO Entry Benefit U.S. Consumers?
In this paper, the authors quantify the effect of China’s 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization on U.S. consumers. They find that China’s entry drove down the U.S. price index of manufactured goods by 7.6 percent—a decline that averaged about 1 percent annually between 2000 and 2006. The results show that most of the effect on the index is due to China’s reduction of its own input tariffs.
By Mary Amiti, Mi Dai, Robert C. Feenstra, and John Romalis, Staff Reports 817, June 2017
Investors’ Appetite for Money-Like Assets: The Money Market Fund Industry after the 2014 Regulatory Reform
The authors document the reaction of money market fund (MMF) investors and portfolio managers to a new SEC regulation that came into effect in October 2016. They attribute differences in behavior—compared with past outflows from prime and muni MMFs—to investors’ appetite for money-like assets, whose supply was impacted by the new regulation, as opposed to traditional flight-to-safety motives.
By Marco Cipriani, Gabriele La Spada, and Philip Mulder, Staff Reports 816, June 2017
Macroprudential Policy and the Revolving Door of Risk: Lessons from Leveraged Lending Guidance
The authors investigate the response of financial institutions to U.S. leveraged lending guidance. They find that only the largest and most scrutinized banks cut their leveraged lending activity significantly—after regulators issued important clarifications. The guidance also triggered a migration of leveraged lending to nonbanks.
By Sooji Kim, Matthew C. Plosser, and João A. C. Santos, Staff Reports 815, May 2017
Access to Credit and Financial Health: Evaluating the Impact of Debt Collection

The authors analyze the effect of debt collection practices on both consumer credit and indicators of financial health.  They find consistent evidence that restricting collection activities leads to a decrease in access to credit and to a deterioration in indicators of financial health—including a rise in delinquent balances and decrease in credit scores.

By Julia Fonseca, Katherine Strair, and Basit Zafar, Staff Reports 814, May 2017
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