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When College Might Not Be Worth It
Although the authors found that the economic benefits of a college degree still far outweigh the costs for a typical college graduate, some graduates do not earn as high a return. For example, some colleges are much more expensive than average, the cost of living on campus was not factored in, and some students may take five or six years to finish. The authors consider when the cost of college might not pay off and explore differences by major.
By Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz
Will Peak Demand Roil Global Oil Markets?
The “peak oil” theory that the depletion of accessible petroleum deposits would lead to declining global oil output and higher prices is back, but in reverse form. Now, global demand is seemingly set to flatten and fade amid the growing use of electric vehicles and other low-carbon technologies. The authors discuss how “peak demand” could turn global oil markets into a zero-sum game, where supply growth in one region would push down prices and drive out higher-cost producers elsewhere.
By Thomas Klitgaard and Matthew Higgins
Recent Shifts Seen in Consumers’ Public Policy Expectations
The authors examine large shifts in households’ beliefs following the release of the December 2024 SCE Public Policy Survey. Households assigned higher likelihoods to a variety of tax cuts and to reductions in a range of transfer programs, while they assigned lower likelihoods to tax hikes and expansions in entitlement programs. Households’ expectations about future economic developments play a key role in influencing their decisions and actions as consumers and workers.
By Joseph Delehanty, Gizem Kosar, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Monetary Policy Spillovers and the Role of the Dollar
The authors introduce real-world complexities into their analysis of monetary policy spillovers, including a dominant global currency and tight linkages across international capital markets. Given these additional factors, is it still possible to draw generalized conclusions about international policy spillovers? Can they still be thought of as a fundamentally bilateral phenomenon? To answer, the authors focus on two key elements in the determination of international policy spillovers: the U.S. dollar and the global financial cycle.
By Sushant Acharya, Ozge Akinci, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, and Paolo A. Pesenti
How Household Saving Affects Monetary Policy Spillovers
The authors continue their exploration of monetary policy spillovers by focusing on the implications of differences across market participants with respect to their consumption preferences and ability to insure against income risk. They find that these features can, at least theoretically, change the impact of spillovers from positive to negative as well as alter their overall magnitude. These aspects are especially relevant when addressing spillovers from advanced to emerging economies.
By Sushant Acharya, Ozge Akinci, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, and Paolo A. Pesenti
Monetary Policy Spillovers in the Global Economy
Monetary policy actions in one country can have welcome effects on the economies of its trading partners by stimulating demand or curbing inflation. However, they can also be potential sources of disruption and instability by inducing unwarranted capital inflows or outflows. The authors provide a non-technical introduction to the multifaceted literature on global spillovers, building on their own research, to provide an overview of the classic transmission channels.
By Sushant Acharya, Ozge Akinci, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, and Paolo A. Pesenti
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
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Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
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The New York Fed DSGE Model
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New York Fed Staff Nowcast
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Outlook-at-Risk
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Treasury Term Premia
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Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
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Center for Microeconomic Data
Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)
RDE estimates provide a quantitative measure of the ampleness of reserves in the U.S. banking system in real time. New data are published monthly.
Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs)
The EHIs are broad-based economic indicators that measure macroeconomic outcomes experienced by different demographic, economic, and geographic groups on both a regional and national level.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Regional Business Surveys:
Special Topics
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
The labor market for recent college graduates deteriorated noticeably in the first quarter of 2025. The unemployment rate jumped to 5.8 percent—the highest reading since 2021—and the underemployment rate rose sharply to 41.2 percent.
Recent Publications
The Price of Processing: Information Frictions and Market Efficiency in DeFi
A central question in financial economics concerns price discovery, or how new information be-comes embedded in asset prices. The authors study this question within the context of hacks in decentralized finance (DeFi). They precisely time both when the hacks begin on the public blockchain record and when the news is later announced on social media, becoming common knowledge. Their central finding is that prices move significantly before the news becomes common knowledge.
Pablo D. Azar, Sergio Olivas, and Nish D. Sinha, Staff Report 1153, April 2025
Component-Based Dynamic Factor Nowcast Model
The authors propose a component-based dynamic factor model for nowcasting GDP growth, evaluating its performance against existing models. They demonstrate that, on average, the performance of the standard dynamic factor model can be improved by 15 percent and its density nowcast performance can be improved by 20 percent over a large historical sample.
Hannah O’Keeffe and Katerina Petrova, Staff Report 1152, April 2025
Uniform Inference with General Autoregressive Processes
Imposing short memory assumptions in macroeconomic and financial models is convenient, since it delivers standard econometric inference on the models’ parameters with conventional asymptotic distributions. However, such stationarity assumptions are often empirically unrealistic. The authors propose a unified, distribution-free framework for inference in autoregressive, predictive regression, and local projection models, when the regressor’s autoregressive root is in (-∞, ∞). They demonstrate how their procedure can be used to construct valid confidence intervals in standard epidemiological models.
Tassos Magdalinos and Katerina Petrova, Staff Report 1151, April 2025
How Do We Learn About the Long Run?
The authors provide novel empirical and theoretical insights into how professional forecasters form and revise long-run expectations. Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts across multiple horizons, the authors show that long-horizon expectations display considerable heterogeneity across forecasters, evolve dynamically in response to short-run developments, and are shaped by multivariate considerations. Their findings challenge the conventional assumption of anchored or rational long-run expectations and motivate models in which information frictions are relevant at short- and long-run horizons.
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench, and Bruce Preston, Staff Report 1150, April 2025
The Risk Sensitivity of Global Liquidity Flows: Heterogeneity, Evolution, and Drivers
The period after the global financial crisis (GFC) was characterized by a considerable risk migration within global liquidity flows, away from cross-border bank lending toward international bond issuance. The authors investigate the drivers of these global risk sensitivities and the determinants of the post-GFC risk migration. They also examine the shifting drivers of global liquidity across its main components (cross-border and international bonds), borrowing country groups (advanced and emerging market economies), and borrowing sectors (bank and non-bank).
Stefan Avdjiev, Leonardo Gambacorta, Linda S. Goldberg, and Stefano Schiaffi, Staff Report 1149, April 2025
Subjective Uncertainty and the Marginal Propensity to Consume
Earnings uncertainty is central to most heterogeneous-household models. Yet, there is surprisingly little evidence on how subjective uncertainty is related to consumption behavior. Using unique data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, the authors show that the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is increasing and concave in individual specific earnings growth uncertainty.
Gizem Koşar and Davide Melcangi, Staff Report 1148, April 2025
Tradeoffs for the Poor, Divine Coincidence for the Rich
Monetary policymakers face a tradeoff between the variability of inflation and real activity. However, both the experience of recent decades and the heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) literature developed over the same period make it clear that such tradeoffs may be very different for different households. The authors use an estimated medium-scale HANK model to investigate how the tradeoff between stabilizing inflation and consumption volatility varies for households with different levels of wealth.
Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula, Staff Report 1147, April 2025
U.S. Treasury Market Functioning from the GFC to the Pandemic
The authors examine U.S. Treasury securities market functioning from the global financial crisis (GFC) through the Covid-19 pandemic, given the ensuing market developments and associated policy responses. They describe factors that have meaningfully affected liquidity provision since the GFC and discuss the effects of these changes in both normal times and times of stress, concluding with a discussion of policy implications, including recent policy initiatives that are intended to promote market resilience.
Tobias Adrian, Michael Fleming, and Kleopatra Nikolaou, Staff Report 1146, April 2025
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