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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
How Does Credit Access Affect Job-Search Outcomes and Sorting?
How does access to consumer credit affect the job finding behavior of displaced workers? Are these workers looking for jobs at larger and more productive firms? The authors review their recent work that explores these questions and others by building a new data set of individual credit reports merged with administrative earnings data.
By Kyle Herkenhoff and Gordon Phillips
Searching for Higher Job Satisfaction
Moving from one job to another is often discussed as a way that workers pursue higher wages, but little is known about how job satisfaction factors into job search. Using data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, the authors document the heterogeneity in job contentment and preferences for various nonwage amenities, and discuss the impact of these preferences on labor market behavior.
By Gizem Kosar, Leo Goldman, and Kyle Smith
Is the Tide Lifting All Boats? A Closer Look at the Earnings Growth Experience of U.S. Workers
The authors focus on the experiences of U.S. workers over the past two decades at different points of the wage distribution and for various demographic groups. Among their findings: although there is some evidence that workers at the bottom of the earnings distribution may be catching up with those at the top, there are indications that returns to higher education may be increasing, with earnings growth for college graduates outpacing those with less education.
By René Chalom, Fatih Karahan, Brendan Moore, and Giorgio Topa
Women Have Been Hit Hard by the Loss of Routine Jobs, Too
Technology and globalization have created new opportunities but have also eliminated millions of good-paying jobs, particularly routine manufacturing jobs. Although attention is most often paid to the loss of blue-collar production jobs for men, the authors show that the combined loss of production and administrative support jobs since 2000 is more than three times as large for prime-age women than prime-age men.
By Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz
Introduction to Heterogeneity Series II: Labor Market Outcomes
Although average outcomes serve as important yardsticks for the economy, how outcomes vary across a population is key to understanding the entire picture, as well as the implications for policy. Building on a related Liberty Street Economics series in October, we further explore dimensions of heterogeneity in labor market experience, in four posts publishing tomorrow.
By Rajashri Chakrabarti
Research Topics
Center for Microeconomic Data
The Center for Microeconomic Data offers wide-ranging data and analysis on the finances and economic expectations of U.S. households.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
The Laubach-Williams and Holston-Laubach-Williams models provide estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, and related variables for the United States and other advanced economies. We share quarterly estimates as well as the replication code and documentation for both models.
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot is a monthly presentation designed to give you a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy.
Oil Price Dynamics Report
Our oil price decomposition, reported weekly, examines what’s behind recent fluctuations in oil prices: demand factors, supply factors, or some combination of the two?
Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)
The New York Fed Staff UIG measures capture sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data. We share estimates and downloadable data on a monthly basis.
Nowcasting Report
Weekly report tracks the evolution of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast of GDP growth and the impact of new macroeconomic data releases on the forecast.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Business activity picked up in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
Business Leaders Survey
Activity in the region’s service sector grew at a faster pace than in recent months, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s February 2020 Business Leaders Survey.
Supplemental Survey Report
Supplementary questions to the February Empire State Manufacturing Survey and Business Leaders Survey focused on staffing and compensation issues, including effects of the recent minimum wage hike in New York.
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Labor market conditions remained favorable for recent college graduates at the end of 2019. After rising slightly earlier in the year, the unemployment rate has edged down to 3.9 percent. The underemployment rate dropped to 41.0 percent—its lowest level since the early 2000s.
Recent Publications
Uncertainty about Trade Policy Uncertainty
The authors revisit the macroeconomic impact of the recent increase in trade policy uncertainty. As in the literature, they find that high trade policy uncertainty can negatively affect domestic and foreign economic activity. Alternatively, they identify a business sentiment channel—which is separate and distinct from the trade policy uncertainty mechanism—that they believe provides a complementary explanation of the recent developments in U.S. and global economic activities.
Gianluca Benigno and Jan J. J. Groen, Staff Report 919, March 2020
The Market Events of Mid-September 2019
The authors study the mid-September 2019 stress in U.S. money markets: On September 16 and 17, unsecured and secured funding rates spiked and, on September 17, the effective federal funds rate broke the ceiling of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) target range. Their analysis highlights two factors that may have contributed to these events.
Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, Adam Copeland, Anna Kovner, Gabriele La Spada, and Antoine Martin, Staff Report 918, March 2020
The Overnight Drift
While much of the literature on globalization has focused on funding markets and cross-border flows, the effect of globalization on trading activity has received relatively little attention. The authors study the 24-hour trading returns on U.S. equity futures, documenting an overnight positive drift in returns accruing around the opening hours of global exchanges.
Nina Boyarchenko, Lars C. Larsen, and Paul Whelan, Staff Report 917, February 2020
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK
The authors study optimal monetary policy in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian economy. When income risk is countercyclical, policy curtails the fall in output in recessions to mitigate the increase in inequality. Their study uncovers a new form of time inconsistency of the Ramsey plan—the temptation to exploit households’ unhedged interest rate exposure to lower inequality.
Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe, and Keshav Dogra, Staff Report 916, February 2020
Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks
Timely characterizations of risks to the economic outlook play an important role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. The authors introduce a simple method to quantify time-varying risks around macroeconomic forecasts, and use this method to construct probabilistic forecasts for real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation.
Patrick A. Adams, Tobias Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko, and Domenico Giannone, Staff Report 914, February 2020
The Global Financial Resource Curse
The authors present a model to study the impact of financial integration on global productivity growth. They show that capital flows from developing countries to the United States can generate a global productivity growth slowdown by triggering a fall in economic activity in the U.S. tradable sector—an effect they have dubbed “the global financial resource curse.”
Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro, and Martin Wolf, Staff Report 915, February 2020
Managing the Treasury Yield Curve in the 1940s
The author examines the efforts of the Federal Open Market Committee to first control, and later decontrol, the level and shape of the Treasury yield curve in the 1940s. The discussion includes a review of the lessons in yield curve management that can be gleaned from the Committee’s efforts.
Kenneth Garbade, Staff Report 913, February 2020
How Did the Fed Funds Market Change When Excess Reserves Were Abundant?
The authors describe the functioning of the federal funds market during the recent period of abundant excess reserves that started in 2010 and ended in early 2018. In particular, they show that the very large increase in excess reserves in the period following the 2007-08 financial crisis changed both the types of participants that were active in the fed funds market and their motivations for participating. They also observe that day-to-day volatility in the effective federal funds rate decreased significantly in this period.
John P. McGowan and Ed Nosal, Economic Policy Review, Forthcoming
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