A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.

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Note: Survey responses were collected between October 2 and October 9. Download the full report |
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Business activity declined significantly in the region's service sector in October, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey's headline business activity index fell twelve points to -20.7, its lowest level since March. The business climate index was little changed at -35.0, suggesting the business climate remained much worse than normal. Employment held steady, and wage growth remained modest. Supply availability continued to worsen. The pace of input price increases remained sharp, and selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace since 2022. Capital spending remained weak. Looking ahead, firms became somewhat pessimistic about the outlook for the next six months.
Activity Falls Sharply
Business activity in the New York-Northern New Jersey region fell at a significantly faster pace, according to the October survey. The headline business activity index dropped twelve points to -20.7. Twenty-two percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month while 42 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index was little changed at -35.0, with just over half of respondents reporting an unfavorable climate. Employment Holds Steady
The employment index rose five points to zero, suggesting that employment held steady after edging lower last month. The wages index was little changed at 28.2, indicating that wages continued to increase at a modest pace. The prices paid index held near 70.0, signaling that input prices continued to increase sharply, while the prices received index rose three points to 36.3, its highest level in four years. The capital spending index moved down two points to -4.2, indicating that capital spending edged lower. The supply availability index rose three points to -13.3, suggesting that supply availability continued to worsen, though somewhat less so than last month. Firms Become Pessimistic About the Outlook
The index for future business activity fell ten points to -5.1, dropping into negative territory for the first time since December of 2025 and suggesting that firms expect a small decline in activity over the next six months. Firms expect the business climate to remain worse than normal. Employment is expected to increase modestly in the months ahead. Firms' expectations for future input and selling price increases remained elevated and were little changed. The index for future capital spending turned negative, pointing to weak capital spending plans, and supply availability is expected to continue to worsen. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025 |
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables csv Data definitions
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |
