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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between August 3 and August 10.
Business activity grew strongly in New York State in August, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose five points to 20.6, its highest reading in more than four years. New orders and shipments posted solid gains. Unfilled orders increased notably, delivery times lengthened substantially, and inventories declined. Supply availability continued to worsen. Employment levels and the average workweek rose modestly. The pace of input price increases picked up, and selling price increases remained elevated but eased for a second consecutive month. Looking ahead, firms maintained an optimistic outlook for business activity.
Manufacturing activity grew strongly in New York State in August. The general business conditions index increased five points to 20.6, a more than four year high. The new orders index came in at 17.3, and the shipments index printed at 11.7, pointing to continued solid increases in orders and shipments. The unfilled orders index rose eleven points to 15.5 and the delivery times index rose eight points to 20.6, suggesting an increase in unfilled orders and significantly longer delivery times. Inventories declined. The supply availability index dipped three points to -13.4, pointing to worsening supply availability.
The index for number of employees came in at 9.3, and the average workweek index rose to 6.9, suggesting an ongoing expansion of employment levels and hours worked. The prices paid index rose six points to 58.6, pointing to a pickup in input price increases, and the prices received index dipped five points to 22.7, suggesting that selling price increases moderated but remained elevated.
The index for future business conditions rose four points to 32.1, suggesting firms remained optimistic about future conditions. New orders and shipments are expected to increase significantly, and employment is expected to pick up strongly over the next six months. Supply availability is expected to worsen, and price increases are expected to remain elevated. Capital spending plans remained modest.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Historical Tables
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
