Center for Microeconomic Data

Consumers Expect Lower Inflation, Home, and Goods Prices over the Next Year
Consumers’ inflation expectations declined at the short- and longer-term horizons and increased slightly at the medium term, according to the June Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median one-year-ahead and five-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 3.0 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively; median three-year-ahead expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9 percent. Expectations about median home price growth decreased to 3.0 percent from 3.3 percent, returning to the series’ twelve-month trailing average. Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.0 percent, above the series’ twelve-month trailing average of 2.8 percent and the measure’s highest reading since September 2023. Expectations for median year-ahead price changes decreased for all goods in the survey, and median year-ahead expected growth in government debt remained unchanged at 9.3 percent.

For more details:
Press Release: Consumers Expect Lower Inflation and Slower Home Price Growth Over the Next Year
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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