Median expected growth in household income, earnings and especially household spending all declined in December 2015. Labor market expectations are mixed compared to last month: Perceived layoff risk declined, but the perceived likelihood of finding a new job (if one were to lose their job today) also declined, although it remained at the high end of the range recorded since the inception of the survey. Median expected inflation remained flat at the one-year ahead horizon, tying last month's series low, whereas it increased slightly at the three-year horizon.
In an effort to improve the measurement and understanding of consumer economic expectations, the Research Group has partnered with a large national polling firm to develop a new “Survey of Consumer Expectations.” The monthly survey yields a rich store of data that will be made available to both the research community and the general public. Where existing surveys look at consumer sentiment and the decisions households make, their coverage of household expectations is limited; the Survey of Consumer Expectations seeks to collect information on a wide variety of consumer expectations – including inflation, future earnings, household income, house prices, access to credit, layoff risk and reemployment prospects, and US economic conditions overall. Through a set of quarterly special surveys it also aims to focus in depth on special topics such as household finances as well as labor and housing market issues and outcomes. Each month the Survey of Consumer Expectations interviews approximately 1200 people who are part of a rolling panel, where each respondent participates in the survey for up to a year.
Olivier Armantier, Andreas Fuster, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, Basit Zafar.
For more information about this project, please contact us.