The August 2016 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows an increase in both short-term and medium-term inflation expectations. In particular, the median year-ahead inflation expectations reached its highest level of the year. Median expected household income growth also increased (for the third month in a row) to its highest level since May of 2015. Labor market expectations were mixed: Expectations about finding a job and earnings growth both improved, but the perceived probability of losing a job and expectations about the unemployment rate both increased slightly.
In an effort to improve the measurement and understanding of consumer economic expectations, the Research Group has partnered with a large national polling firm to develop a new “Survey of Consumer Expectations.” The monthly survey yields a rich store of data that will be made available to both the research community and the general public. Where existing surveys look at consumer sentiment and the decisions households make, their coverage of household expectations is limited; the Survey of Consumer Expectations seeks to collect information on a wide variety of consumer expectations – including inflation, future earnings, household income, house prices, access to credit, layoff risk and reemployment prospects, and US economic conditions overall. Through a set of quarterly special surveys it also aims to focus in depth on special topics such as household finances as well as labor and housing market issues and outcomes. Each month the Survey of Consumer Expectations interviews approximately 1200 people who are part of a rolling panel, where each respondent participates in the survey for up to a year.
Olivier Armantier, Andreas Fuster, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, Basit Zafar.
For more information about this project, please contact us.