Center for Microeconomic Data

Survey of Consumer Expectations
The December survey shows that median inflation expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point at the one-year horizon to reach 2.5 percent and remained at 2.5 percent at the three-year horizon. Similarly, median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased slightly at the one-year horizon and remained unchanged at the three-year horizon. Expectations for home price changes, earnings growth, unemployment, and income growth were also unchanged. Consumers were slightly more pessimistic about other labor market outcomes, such as the perceived probability of losing one’s job.

For more details:
Press Release: Consumer Expectations Remain Mostly Unchanged in December; Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Up
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.