Center for Microeconomic Data

Short-Term Inflation Expectations Decline, Household Spending Expectations Fall Sharply
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 5.0 percent, its lowest reading since July 2021, according to the December Survey of Consumer Expectations. Medium-term expectations remained at 3.0 percent, while the five-year-ahead measure increased to 2.4 percent. Household spending expectations fell sharply to 5.9 percent from 6.9 percent in November, while income growth expectations rose to a new series high of 4.6 percent.

Recent additions to the SCE interactive chart below:
  • The newly released five-year-ahead inflation expectations data series is now reflected on the interactive chart and is included as the last tab in the “Chart Data” Excel file provided under the Downloads drop-down menu;
  • data for probabilities of different one- and three-year ahead inflation outcomes; and
  • data for the three-year outlook for home price change expectations by demographics.

For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Continue to Decline, Tick up Slightly in Longer Term
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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