Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
May Survey: Inflation Expectations Decrease Across the Three Horizons; Labor Market Outlook Improves
  • Median inflation expectations decreased at all three horizons in May. One-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.4 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent, three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.2 ppt to 3.0 percent, and five-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.1 ppt to 2.6 percent.
  • Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 ppt to 2.7 percent in May, while mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—dropped 3.3 ppt to 40.8 percent, remaining well above the trailing twelve-month average of 37.7 percent.
  • Households’ median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.3 ppt to 3.0 percent. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0 percent and 3.3 percent since August 2023.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.5 ppt to 14.8 percent. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months increased by 0.1 ppt to 18.3 percent.



For more details:
Press Release: Inflation Expectations Decline; Labor Market Expectations Improve
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
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SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
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SCE Labor Market
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SCE Public Policy
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Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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