Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
April Survey: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Rise at Short-Term, Remain Stable at Medium- and Longer-Term Horizons
  • Median inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point (ppt) to 3.6 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons, respectively, in April.
  • Median year-ahead gas price growth expectations dropped sharply by 4.3 ppts to 5.1 percent from a spike in March.
  • Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.3 ppt to 2.7 percent in April; however, mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 0.4 ppt to 43.9 percent, the highest reading of the series since April 2025.
  • Perceptions about credit access compared to a year ago and expectations for future credit availability both deteriorated, while the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.9 ppt to 11.4 percent, the lowest reading in more than two years.



For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increase Further, Longer-Term Expectations Stable
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
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SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
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SCE Labor Market
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SCE Public Policy
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Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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