Center for Microeconomic Data

Inflation Expectations Rise at Short- and Longer-Term Horizons, Come in Lower at Medium Term
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent, according to the April Survey of Consumer Expectations. They also increased to 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon, while decreasing to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent at the three-year horizon. Home price expectations ticked up to 3.3 percent after seven consecutive months at 3.0 percent, reaching their highest level since July 2022. In the labor market, the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separation over the next twelve months decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 19.4 percent and 0.6 percentage point to 15.1 percent, respectively.

For more details:
Press Release: Consumers Expect Higher Short-Term Inflation and Home Price Growth
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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