SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS - Median inflation expectations increased by 0.4 percentage point (ppt) to 3.4 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, increased by 0.1 ppt to 3.1 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon in March.
- Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 5.3 ppts for gas to 9.4 percent, the highest reading since March 2022.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.9 ppts to 45.9 percent; however, the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months also increased by 0.6 ppt to 14.4 percent.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated compared to a year ago, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also worsened, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation at its highest level since April 2025.
For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increase as Gas Price Growth Expectations Spike


