Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
June Survey: Inflation Expectations Up at Short- and Medium-Term Horizons; Gas Price Growth Expectations Fall
  • Median inflation expectations at the one-year ahead horizon increased by 0.2 percentage point (ppt) to 3.7 percent in June, the highest level since September 2023, and by 0.2 ppt to 3.3 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon, the highest level since June 2022. They were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon.
  • Gas price growth expectations declined by 3.5 ppts to 1.5 percent, the lowest level observed since August 2022.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 1.0 ppt to 14.1 percent, and the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.2 ppt to 44.9 percent.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share reporting a better financial situation; however, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated slightly, with a larger share of respondents expecting that it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.



For more details:
Press Release: Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Increase, Gas Price Growth Expectations Fall
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
Survey
SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
Survey
SCE Labor Market
Survey
SCE Public Policy
Survey
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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