Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
February Survey: Labor Market Expectations Decline Slightly Overall,
Inflation Expectations Tick Down at Short-Term Horizon, and Delinquency
Expectations Improve
  • Median inflation expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year-ahead horizon to reach 3.0 percent in February while holding at 3.0 percent at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.
  • Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased in February by 0.2 ppt to 2.5 percent, just below the trailing twelve-month average of 2.6 percent. The mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next twelve months decreased by 2.8 ppts to 15.9 percent, a new series low.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost decreased by 1.6 ppts to 44.0 percent. However, mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 2 ppts to 39.9 percent.
  • The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 2.1 ppts to 11.6 percent, its lowest level since February 2024.



For more details:
Press Release: Labor Market Expectations Soften Slightly, but Delinquency Expectations Improve
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
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SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
Survey
SCE Labor Market
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SCE Public Policy
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Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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