Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
September Survey: Inflation Expectations Up at Short- and Medium-Term, Unchanged at Longer-Term Horizons; Labor Market Expectations
Mostly Improve
  • Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively. This is the highest reading for one-year-ahead inflation expectations since May 2023. Expectations remained unchanged at the five-year-ahead horizon at 3.0 percent.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.5 ppt to 43.9 percent but remained above the 12-month trailing average of 42.4 percent. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.3 ppt to 13.5 percent, the lowest reading since December 2024.
  • The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1 ppt to 3.1 percent, the highest reading since February 2025. Median one-year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations increased by 0.3 ppt to 5.5 percent, above the 12-month trailing average of 5.0 percent and the highest reading of the series since May 2023.
  • Perceptions and expectations about households’ financial situations both deteriorated, with larger shares of households reporting a worse financial situation compared to a year ago and expecting a worse financial situation a year from now.



For more details:
Press Release: Short- and Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Increase; Labor Market Expectations Improve
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
Survey
SCE Household
Spending Survey
housing icon
SCE Housing
Survey
SCE Labor Market
Survey
SCE Public Policy
Survey
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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