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Center for Microeconomic Data

SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS

Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Are Mixed over the Three Horizons

Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0 percent at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent at the three-year horizon, and rose to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent at the five-year horizon, according to the September Survey of Consumer Expectations. In the labor market, the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months increased to 20.4 percent from 19.1 percent, and the mean perceived probability of finding a job in the event of job loss increased to 52.7 percent from 52.3 percent in August. Year-ahead household income and spending growth expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively. Perceptions and expectations of credit access improved compared to a year ago; however, the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased to 14.2 percent from 13.6 percent in August, the highest reading of the series since April 2020.

For more details:
Press Release: Delinquency Expectations Continue to Deteriorate; Inflation Expectations Tick Up at the Medium- and Longer-Term Horizons

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Fielding the Survey

The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.

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