Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
August Survey: Inflation Expectations Tick Down at Medium-Term, Remain Unchanged at Short- and Longer-Term Horizons; Unemployment
Expectations Deteriorate
  • Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the three-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, at the one-year and five-year-ahead horizons.
  • Gas price growth expectations increased again in August, rising by 1.7 ppt to 4.6 percent.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.6 ppt to 44.4 percent, its highest reading since April 2020. The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.8 ppt to 45.4 percent.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.4 ppt to 13.8 percent, its lowest reading since February 2026. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next twelve months increased by 0.9 ppt to 19.5 percent, above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 18.4 percent.



For more details:
Press Release: Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Unemployment Expectations Deteriorate
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
Survey
SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
Survey
SCE Labor Market
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SCE Public Policy
Survey
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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