Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
December Survey: Labor Market Expectations Worsen; Inflation Expectations Tick Up at Short-Term, Unchanged at Medium- and Longer-Term Horizons
  • Median inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point (ppt) to 3.4 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon in December. They were unchanged at the three-year- and five-year-ahead horizons, both at 3 percent.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job were lost fell by 4.2 ppts to 43.1 percent, reaching a new series low. The decline was driven by respondents with annual household incomes below $100,000 and was most pronounced for those above age 60 and those with a high school degree or less.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 1.4 ppts to 15.2 percent. The reading is above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.3 percent. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next twelve months decreased by 0.2 ppt to 17.5 percent.
  • Households’ perceptions about their current financial situation compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situation improved as well.



For more details:
Press Release: Labor Market Expectations Deteriorate as Job Finding Expectations Reach Series Low
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
Survey
SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
Survey
SCE Labor Market
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SCE Public Policy
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Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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