Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
October Survey: Inflation Expectations Unchanged at Short-, Medium-, and Longer-Term Horizons; Labor Market Expectations Mixed
  • Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-, three-, and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.9 percent, 3.3 percent, and 3.0 percent, respectively.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.4 percentage points (ppt) to 45.3 percent, the highest reading since April 2020. The increase was driven by those without a college degree.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 0.4 ppt to 13.9 percent, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 14.3 percent. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 19.4 percent, remaining above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 18.4 percent.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 0.4 ppt to 46.5 percent, the highest level since November 2025.



For more details:
Press Release: Inflation Expectations Stable; Labor Market Expectations Mixed
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
Survey
SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
Survey
SCE Labor Market
Survey
SCE Public Policy
Survey
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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