Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
October Survey: Inflation Expectations Decrease at Short-Term Horizon; Labor Market Expectations Are Mixed
  • Median inflation expectations decreased by 0.2 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at the three-year- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.0 percent each.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.4 ppts to 42.5 percent. The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell by 0.6 ppt to 46.8 percent, while the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months dropped 0.9 ppt to 14.0 percent.
  • Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit, the lowest since February 2022, and a larger share reporting it is easier to get credit, the highest since October 2024.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago worsened, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also deteriorated, with a larger share of households expecting a worse financial situation one year from now.



For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Decline; Labor Market Expectations Mixed
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
Survey
SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
Survey
SCE Labor Market
Survey
SCE Public Policy
Survey
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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