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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
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Has Broader Stock Market Participation Changed How Interest Rates Affect the Economy?
Stock market participation among U.S. households has risen dramatically over the past four decades. As participation widened, the way stock market fluctuations pass through to household spending may have changed, with potential implications for how the broader economy behaves. An argument can be made that the rise in equity market participation has dampened the response of output to interest rate changes as stock market fluctuations are now spread across a larger share of households.
By Juan M. Morelli
Does the Equity Term Structure Respond to Monetary Policy Shocks?
Research has documented the effects of Fed interest rate surprises on stock markets. Although stock markets provide valuable information about the investor risk premium and dividend growth expectations, researchers have only recently developed tools to estimate the term structure of equity risk premia and dividend growth expectations across a broad range of maturities. In this post, the authors investigate how monetary policy shocks impact short- and long-term estimates of risk premia and growth expectations.
By Henry Dyer and Tomas Jankauskas
How Distressed Are Consumers? Reconciling Diverging Credit Card Delinquency Measures
Total debt balances declined slightly in the second quarter of 2026, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. However, the percentage of credit card balances 90+ days delinquent rose from 7.6 percent to 12.8 percent between 2022 and 2026. The authors use data from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel to better understand the state of the consumer and to explain the difference between two measures of delinquency.
By Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, Tejas Sinha, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Stripping STRIPs Trading Activity
Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS) are zero-coupon securities created from the separation of cash flows on a Treasury security into the underlying coupon and principal components. In March 2020, FINRA began reporting aggregate trading volume for Treasuries; however, this did not include STRIPS. The authors provide the first detailed analysis of STRIPS trading activity using FINRA’s Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) transactions data.
By Michael Fleming and Or Shachar
Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?
Americans are moving less than they used to. Moving rates have declined steadily for decades, falling from close to 20 percent annually in the mid-1980s to below 10 percent by 2019. In this post, the authors use data from the annual SCE Housing Survey to show that this decline in mobility holds for homeowners and renters alike—with growing challenges to owning a home being an important contributing factor for renters.
By Christopher Gresh, Andrew Haughwout, Eungik Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
Street Level: AI’s Impact on Labor and Hiring
In this inaugural Street Level post, Research Director Kartik Athreya discusses recent work by New York Fed staff on artificial intelligence and the labor market. He examines how AI is changing the labor market and hiring behaviors, highlighting research about how AI is likely to affect the economy overall and labor markets in particular—a top-of-mind topic for almost everyone in the workforce today.
By Kartik Athreya
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Labor Market Tightness Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
(Updated: Quarterly)

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
(Updated: Monthly)

The New York Fed DSGE Model
(Updated: Quarterly)

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
(Updated: Weekly)

Outlook-at-Risk
(Updated: Monthly)

Treasury Term Premia
(Updated: Daily)

Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
(Updated: Monthly)
Center for Microeconomic Data
AI generated, people walking in office building.
Labor Market Tightness Index
The HPW Labor Market Tightness Index is an indicator of labor market tightness for summarizing current wage pressures and predicting wage inflation.
Photo: a four-panel picture of people cleaning up after natural disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters provides county-level estimates of the economic and human impact of extreme weather events in the United States.
Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)
RDE estimates provide a quantitative measure of the ampleness of reserves in the U.S. banking system in real time. New data are published monthly.
Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs)
The EHIs are broad-based economic indicators that measure macroeconomic outcomes experienced by different demographic, economic, and geographic groups on both a regional and national level.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Regional Business Surveys:
Special Topics
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Labor market conditions remained challenging for recent college graduates through the second quarter of 2026. The unemployment rate stayed elevated at about 5.6 percent, and the underemployment rate edged up to 42 percent.
Recent Publications
How Do Market Expectations React to the FOMC Dot Plot?
The public pays close attention to Federal Reserve communications about future monetary policy, but how do these communications shape the public’s expectations for policy rates? These expectations have effects on longer-term interest rates and therefore on the macroeconomy. The authors explore how market expectations adjust to the information provided in the “dot plot” of the Summary of Economic Projections, which contains the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) assessment of the appropriate future path of the federal funds rate.
Stefania D’Amico, Thomas B. King, and Francisco Torralba, Staff Report 1204, September 2026
The Implied Equity Term Structure
An active body of literature studies and measures the expected returns on equity dividend assets with different maturities. The authors propose a new methodology that tackles the inherent empirical challenges of measuring equity risk premia across different maturities. Instead of using realized returns of dividend assets, they generalize the implied cost of capital approach and imply the term structure of ex-ante expected returns from the cross-section of observed stock prices and projected firm-level cash flows.
Lieven Baele, Joost Driessen, and Tomas Jankauskas, Staff Report 1203, September 2026
Stablecoins Meet the Mundell–Fleming Trilemma
The Mundell–Fleming trilemma states that a country cannot simultaneously maintain a fixed exchange rate, free capital mobility, and independent monetary policy. Its core assumption is that the degree of capital mobility is largely determined by policy or by the structure of international financial markets. The authors construct a novel dataset and a small-open-economy New Keynesian model to explore the following question: with the emergence of blockchain-based payment infrastructure and stablecoins, does this assumption remain valid?
Pablo D. Azar, Maryam Farboodi, and Nish D. Sinha, Staff Report 1202, August 2026
The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-Through into Consumer Prices
The authors estimate how the 2025 U.S. tariffs pass through to consumer prices, separating the direct effect on imports from the indirect effects on domestically produced goods. The direct effect passes through quickly, since tariffs raise import prices almost immediately, while the indirect effects take nine to twelve months to work through supply chains. As a result, tariffs have a larger and more drawn-out impact on consumer prices than the direct effect alone would suggest.
Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein, Staff Report 1201, August 2026
Three Stylized Facts About Inflation Expectations During the 2021-23 Inflation Surge
The authors document three stylized facts about household inflation expectations that stood out during the 2021–23 inflation surge: i) a temporary dislocation in the term structure of expectations, ii) an earlier peak at longer horizons, and iii) a sharp increase in the share of households expecting deflation at medium and long horizons. They show that these stylized facts are consistent with households’ narratives and pose an empirical challenge to existing models of expectation formation.
Olivier Armantier, Gizem Koşar, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams, Staff Report 1200, August 2026
Ordinal Complementarity
The authors develop and empirically test a notion of production complementarity (a higher value of one input raising the return to another) that is ordinal, meaning that it holds across all valuations of the output. Relative to existing conventions, this version of ordinal complementarity obtains more generalizable policy content: in two broad classes of planning problems, it is both a necessary and sufficient condition for optimal allocations to be monotone.
Martín Almuzara, Martín García-Vázquez, and Joseph Mullins, Staff Report 1199, August 2026
Bank Runs With and Without Bank Failure
The authors study the causes and consequences of bank runs. By applying large language models to historical newspapers, they create a comprehensive database of bank runs in U.S. history with information on 3,984 runs on individual banks from 1863 to 1934. Their novel data establishes that runs are considerably more likely in weak banks but also occur in strong banks; however, runs typically only result in failure for banks with poor fundamentals.
Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner, Staff Report 1198, July 2026
The International RBC Model Finally Works!
The standard International Real Business Cycle (RBC) model, driven by aggregate productivity shocks, fails to reconcile the empirical behavior of real exchange rates and macroeconomic variables. The authors show that incorporating uninsurable countercyclical income risk into a standard international RBC model can qualitatively and quantitatively account for the quantity puzzles in open-economy macro, which can be broadly categorized into three groups: quantity puzzles, exchange rate puzzles, and macroeconomic comovement.
Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe, and Louphou Coulibaly, Staff Report 1197, July 2026


The Research Mission
“A central goal of New York Fed Research is to make sure that as we learn, we share.”
     –Kartik Athreya, Research Director

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